AFL 2026 predicted ladder part two: history suggests Geelong may struggle

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The rapid climb didn’t happen overnight. Interest costs have surged due to a one-two punch: the federal debt load has ballooned by trillions, while interest rates climbed sharply from near-zero post-pandemic lows. As a share of the economy, interest costs have doubled from 1.6% of GDP in 2021 to a record 3.2% in 2025. Today, the government already spends more on debt interest than on Medicaid or the entire national defense budget, programs Americans viscerally feel and politically fight over. Yet the interest line item draws comparatively little outrage.​​

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